Base rate neglect
Judging probability by the vividness of a description instead of by how common the phenomenon is: a persuasive story displaces the question of how often such things happen at all.
How to read the number
The antidote is to start from the frequency across the whole population and only then refine it with particular features, rather than the other way round.
When the metric lies
It bites hardest in success stories: the fortunate example is known to everyone, while the number of people who tried the same thing and lost is published nowhere and enters no estimate.
Also known as: ignoring the base rate