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Curve fitting

Tuning rules to the accidental features of a historical sample: the more variants are tried, the better the result on the past looks and the less it says about the future.

How to read the number

The giveaway is fragility: a small change of period, threshold or universe reverses the outcome. A durable pattern does not behave that way.

When the metric lies

The number of variants tried is almost never reported, and without it significance cannot be judged: with enough searching an outstanding result appears even on a random series.

Also known as: fitting rules to history

Related terms