Fair futures price
The price at which holding the contract and holding the underlying asset are equally attractive.
Formula
F = S \cdot e^{(r - q) t}S is the spot price, r the risk-free rate, q the yield of the asset itself (dividends or coupon), t the time to expiry in years.
How to read the number
The gap between the market price and the fair one shows what the market is paying extra for: access to the asset without the full cash, or protection against its scarcity.
When the metric lies
The model assumes free borrowing and the ability to sell the asset short. Where shorting the underlying is unavailable, the futures price legitimately stays below the fair value for months.
Also known as: theoretical futures price