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Forward rate

The rate for a future stretch of time extracted from today's curve: what the market has priced in for a period that has not started yet.

Formula

(1+s_2)^{2} = (1+s_1)\,(1+f_{1,2})

s_1 and s_2 are the spot rates for one and two periods and f is the forward rate for the second period. The identity states something simple: two short investments in a row and one long one must end up in the same place.

How to read the number

Forward rates show the path the market has already put into prices — that is, the course of events that would surprise nobody.

When the metric lies

This is neither a forecast nor a promise. Forward rates routinely diverge from what happens, and a term premium sits inside them that cannot be separated out.

Also known as: implied forward rate

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