Rating outlook
An agency's indication of the likely direction of the next review: positive, stable or negative.
How to read the number
The outlook changes before the rating does, which is what makes it an early signal; a change of outlook is not itself a rating action.
When the metric lies
A negative outlook need not end in a downgrade, and the reverse holds too. Reading it as a decision already taken mistakes a probability for a fact.
Also known as: outlook on a rating