TradeAlmanac
Sign in

Technical recession

A formal marker of decline: two consecutive quarters of falling output against the previous quarter.

How to read the number

It is a convention about words, not a diagnosis. A genuine downturn is judged from employment, income, production and trade together, never from one series.

When the metric lies

A revision to quarterly data cancels a technical recession as easily as it declares one.

Also known as: two negative quarters

Related terms