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Pressure on the Armenian dram on a 0 to 100 scale: the higher the value, the stronger the pressure — the currency weakens, the exchange rate becomes more volatile, the central bank raises its rate and reserves shrink.
The mapping to the 0–100 scale is the same for every component. The rank of the current value among its own values in a window of 504 observations (a percentile); at least 252 observations are required.
| Component | What it measures | Direction | Weight, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange rate volatility | Volatility of the exchange rate against the US dollar over 20 rate-setting days | A rise in the measure increases the pressure | 25.0 |
| Currency weakening | The rate against the US dollar relative to its average over 125 rate-setting days | A rise in the measure increases the pressure | 25.0 |
| Central bank policy rate | The change in the central bank's policy rate over 91 days | A rise in the measure increases the pressure | 25.0 |
| International reserves | The three-month change in international reserves | A rise in the measure eases the pressure | 25.0 |
The indicator is the average of the scores of all available components: each carries the same weight.
A value is published when at least 3 of the 4 components are available. Otherwise there is no value for the day: the middle of the scale is never substituted for it.
The result is stored to three decimal places; the page shows one.
| Zone | Value |
|---|---|
| Calm | 0–25 |
| Low pressure | 25–45 |
| Moderate pressure | 45–55 |
| High pressure | 55–75 |
| Extreme pressure | 75–100 |
The lower bound belongs to the zone: a value of 75 is already “extreme pressure”.
Each component is compared only with its own two-year history, so a value shows how strong the pressure is for this currency, not how much weaker one currency is than another. Values of different countries should not be compared with each other.
The rate against the US dollar is calculated through the rouble from the official rates of the Bank of Russia: the dollar's rouble rate is divided by the currency's rouble rate. A value is dated by the day the official rate is set for; on days without a rate there is no value.
If the exchange rate is fixed or barely moves, the components based on the rate stay in the middle of the scale and the value changes only through the others.
Reserves are published once a month, one to three months in arrears: a day's calculation uses the latest value already published by that day. If no new values appear for more than five months, the component is left out, and the number of components is shown next to the value.
The indicator has been calculated daily since 4 October 2026. Values for earlier dates were reconstructed with the same rules from historical exchange rates, policy rates and reserves; each date is calculated only from data known by it.
The indicators section publishes the indicator value and the component scores on a 0–100 scale — the results of our own calculation. The underlying figures the scores are derived from (exchange rates, policy rates, reserves) are not part of them.
Each version of the method is described on its own page, and that page does not change. If the calculation changes, a new version gets its own page and this one stays at its address.
The indicator reflects market statistics and does not constitute individual investment advice.