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Hindsight bias

The conviction that what happened was predictable: after an event, memory rebuilds earlier expectations around the outcome it now knows.

How to read the number

It is cured by writing things down: a decision recorded with its reasoning and its date cannot later be rewritten in one's own favour.

When the metric lies

The bias makes learning impossible: if everything was obvious there is nothing to examine, and the same mistake repeats with a feeling that this time is different.

Also known as: knew it all along effect

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