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Narrative fallacy

The urge to explain a price move with a coherent story: the explanation is assembled after the fact and turns the accidental into the inevitable.

How to read the number

The test is simple: would the same story serve for the opposite outcome. If it would, the explanation carries no information and only provides comfort.

When the metric lies

A headline of the form the market fell because of such-and-such is almost always assembled in hindsight: the causes of a move are not observable, only the trades are. Taken as fact, such an explanation becomes the basis of the next decision.

Also known as: story-driven explanation

Related terms