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Self-attribution bias

Crediting good outcomes to one's own skill and bad ones to outside circumstances: two different measures for results of the same nature.

How to read the number

The direct consequence is larger positions after a run of wins: the experience feels like confirmation of a method while it confirms only a favourable stretch.

When the metric lies

The bias strengthens with experience, because a longer record accumulates more wins. Skill can be separated from the market only by comparison with a benchmark over the same period, never by feel.

Also known as: self-serving attribution

Related terms