CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

CF Industries makes nitrogen fertiliser from natural gas — and gains from gas being cheap in America.

Ammonia is made from air and gas, and gas is most of the cost. An American plant runs on cheap shale gas, a European one on expensive imports. That cost gap is the company's main asset: when European gas is expensive those plants shut down and the world fertiliser price rises.

Demand is nearly inelastic: without nitrogen the harvest falls, so a farmer applies fertiliser regardless of grain prices, adjusting only the rate. A separate bet is producing ammonia with carbon capture as a fuel for shipping and power. Risks: gas prices, crop cycles and new capacity worldwide. A dividend is paid and buybacks are active.