Intuit Inc. (INTU)

Intuit makes tax and small-business accounting software in the United States: TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma and Mailchimp.

The business has two pillars. TurboTax handles personal tax returns and is sharply seasonal: most revenue lands in the first months of the year, ahead of the filing deadline. QuickBooks is small-business accounting sold by subscription and produces steady recurring revenue all year.

Adjacent services are built around them: payroll, payment acceptance, credit offers through Credit Karma and email marketing via Mailchimp. The point of the construction is to keep the small business and the individual inside one environment where the data is already entered, and to sell the next service without acquisition cost.

The specific risk is regulatory: proposals for free filing directly with the government resurface periodically and go to the foundation of the TurboTax product. The second factor is the health of small business — closures and downsizing show up in subscription counts faster than in macroeconomic statistics.