General Dynamics Corporation (GD)

The defence half covers submarines, combat vehicles, munitions and government information technology. Submarine construction is especially valuable: the programme runs for decades, domestic competitors are almost absent, and shipyard loading is known in advance.

The civil half is business aviation. Demand there depends on wealthy buyers and corporate profits and is therefore cyclical, but margins exceed defence and the order book gives years of visibility. The rhythm of Gulfstream deliveries is most often what makes a quarter deviate from expectations.

The risks are the industry's: fixed-price contracts shift overruns onto the contractor, and shipbuilding schedules slip for want of skilled labour. The company pays a dividend with a very long record of increases.