COPConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips produces oil and gas and does not refine — it is a pure bet on the commodity price.

The company deliberately spun off refining and remained purely in production. That makes its results clearer than integrated competitors': there is no segment that benefits from cheap crude and masks upstream losses. The investor gets direct exposure to the price of a barrel.

Assets are geographically diversified: US shale, Alaska projects, liquefied natural gas, production in Norway and Qatar. The key number is cost per barrel: it determines the price at which the company stays profitable and keeps paying shareholders.

Capital discipline is what distinguishes the current industry cycle from earlier ones: cash returns to shareholders rather than funding production growth at any cost. The company pays a base dividend plus a variable distribution tied to prices.