Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT)

A bookmaker earns not on luck but on the margin built into the odds: with enough volume the outcome of a single match barely affects the result. What decides is scale, the quality of the odds models and the cost of acquiring a player.

The American market opened after a federal ban was struck down and is being divided state by state; the leader gains an advantage hard to claw back, because players rarely keep several apps. Risks: betting taxes raised by states, regulation of advertising and responsible gambling, and the cost of defending share. Sports results also matter in the short run: an unusual run of favourites winning shows up in a single quarter. The company pays no dividend.